The Economy Is Recovering, But What About People?

All signs are pointing towards a speedy recovery. Contrary to what this writer initially predicted, the economy seems to be genuinely recovering. Key companies, including many government-linked corporations, are reporting profits once again. Across Asia, key economies led by China and India are experiencing growth in Q2, Japan is experiencing output growth, and the worst is over in Europe and the US – the epicentres of the financial crisis.

Our own economy is seeing a lower contraction of 3.9% in Q2 as opposed to a 6.2% contraction in Q1. The Asian Development Bank is predicting a 0.2% contraction this year followed by a 4.4% growth in 2010.

The amazing amount of stimulus being pumped in by governments across the globe is seeing its effects. Consumers are buying again. Cars are being sold. And in Malaysia, property speculation and ‘investment’ is hot again. All the pent-up demands are slowly being unleashed into our economy.

U, V, W or L

Economists and politicians alike have been talking about various ways the economic recovery will take. Depending who you talk to, the alphabets U, V, W or L are being brandished as the shape in which the recovery will take. If you are an optimist, then a V of straight up recovery it will be, but if you are pessimist, then a W shaped recovery followed by another dip may be what we’re looking at.

The good news is, regardless of the shape, a recovery now seems a certainty. The bad news is, employment is still at an all time high. Official figures asides, graduates are finding it tough to get jobs, large employers have not started re-hiring and there’s only so many Bumiputra graduates the government can absorb. These, plus the mass retrenchment last year, and VSS offered by many GLCs, mean there are still hundreds of thousands of Malaysians out there who are without jobs. What does an ‘economic recovery’ means to these people?

We were screaming for a major overhaul of the system. For more stringent measures to be put in place to ensure transparency and accountability in both private and public sectors. For our manpower to move up the value chain and stop thinking and acting like unskilled workers. For our economy to be further liberalised and the distinction between Bumiputra and non-Bumiputra in business to be narrowed. I have not heard any objections to any of these goals. Yet, a year into the financial crisis, we are not seeing much real change happening in this country.

Speculators are still being allowed to play up the prices of property. People are still expecting hand-outs from the government. Major trade bodies are still asking for protectionism to be kept in place. And promises of major reform in the government have so far netted more strings of alphabets than real changes.

Capitalism at its finest

There was a major debate among economists and politicians, including at the World Economic Forum and at the G20 Summit that there must be a new economic model to replace the current capitalism for us to prevent another global economic meltdown.

Yet, we are seeing the very essence of capitalism – that the rich gets richer and the poor gets poorer. Even the economic stimulus packages tend to accentuate this. Massive bailouts are benefiting major shareholders and corporate movers and shakers, lower rung employees are being sacrificed as ‘excess headcount’ while top management and business owners are getting away with little more than their cars being downgraded. Politically connected construction companies that were seeing double digit growth before the crisis are seeing double digit growth once again. While small manufacturers that had to scale down are still being turned away by banks. Now, where’s the new economic model these ‘world leaders’ were talking about?

Teach them to fish!

If we continue to ignore the plight of the lower income group, and fail to develop a sustainable strategy to improve their livelihood, we are going to see an ‘Indonesia ‘97’ styled revolt soon. The current practice of handouts and skills training need to be overhauled, as the problem is not physical poverty, but mental poverty.

People will remain poor because they are not being taught how to move out from their comfort zone. We’ve been offered the proverbial crutches for so long, we can no longer stand on our own. With the recession over, barriers down and globalisation resuming, we are doomed as a nation.

Well connected companies will continue to make money, some segments of the society will continue to prosper, but for majority of Malaysians, where’s the recovery?

As Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz said, “recovery will amount to nothing if the most important element of the economy: labour, is overlooked”. The economy may be recovering, but have we done enough for the people on the ground for all these to matter?

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This is my article for the Perspective section of SME Magazine September edition. If you haven't got your copy, head towards your nearest news stand now. :-)