Long Tail or Tall Tale?

There’s so much talks about the ‘long tail strategy’ of late that if you are like me, you would start wondering – does it work? Well, I tell you upfront that I am never a fan of ‘theories’. Theories are for academics, not entrepreneurs. And ‘The Long Tail’, to me, is nothing more than a theory.

A bit of backgrounder is in order here. Chris Anderson, editor of Wired magazine, made a huge splash with The Long Tail, which was first published by the magazine in 2004 and then as a book in 2006. In a nutshell, the long tail theory says that the abundance and ease of choice on the Internet has shifted sales potential from a small number of mainstream "hits" (at the front of the demand curve) toward a near-endless number of lesser-known choices at the tail (hence a ‘long’ tail).

Furthermore, because retail economics restrict stores to carrying only the best-selling products, items that are new in the market and have either lost their appeal or were never popular in the mainstream are pushed out - along with their sunk costs. But then come the Internet, with its infinite "shelf space", making every product discoverable and ready to be purchased. The book has become something of a holy document in the Internet community where companies ("from Amazon to iTunes," says Anderson on his website) want to find a way to sell old songs, movies, videos, ringtones, on-demand books and television shows from their infinite Web warehouses. Case studies flew up everywhere. Locally, we even have pseudo-experts claiming they are now experts on long tails and making all kinds of business consultations to companies.

The new ‘Blue Ocean Strategy’?
Personally, I thought it is a little bit of an oversell. Or rather, I thought the concept vastly overdramatized the effect of a small minority of "committed seekers" dedicated enough to something (comic books, copies of this magazine signed by me, etc...) to search for and purchase what the majority generally do not want. For the sake of democracy and capitalism, I sure like hell hope they are right.

However, when I looked around, in fact, it seemed that the rest of us were doing quite the opposite. The New York Times' Most Blogged, Most Emailed and Most Searched lists. Alexa’s ratings. Top TV Shows, Top Music, Top Movies on iTunes. Amazon.com's Sales Rank, and its Bestsellers list (updated hourly). Even my local DVD pirate has got a list of ‘must watch’ with him. The Internet appeared to be herding users more aggressively toward blockbusters, NOT away from them. So what long tail are we talking about?

Want some proof that the long tail is nothing more than long tale? There's a professor at Harvard Business School who has researched the long tail. Based on sales data for online video rentals and songs, Professor Anita Elberse verifies what I think: not only do hits continue to be just as important online as they are offline, but the Web is actually amplifying demands for hits.

Elberse also discusses what she and others view as an incorrect subjective assumption that Anderson made when building the long tail, which is the idea that people want to go their own way. They don't want to listen, watch or read what everyone else does, and would rather search along the Internet-superhighway for that piece of individuality. Who is he kidding? Elberse cites additional research showing how intensely social people really are: how we like sharing experiences with others and that the mere fact that others like something makes us like it even more. Just go to your Facebook account for a case study in experience sharing.

And Elberse and I are not alone. Neil Howe, who probably coined the term ‘Millennials’, draws a broad distinction between Gen X and this new influential group - the generation driving the most development and change on the Web. Among other things, while Boomers and Gen X "individuated," born-in-the-80s Millennials gravitate toward the social: chat rooms, instant messaging, Facebook. They enjoy being with each other, forming friendships and shared preferences. Rather than acting independently, Millennials who spend time customizing content on the Web do so for the purpose of sharing it with others (hence the YouTube phenomenon). The need to be accepted and conforming is never stronger than with the millennials.

Howe says it is and will be "the most connected generation in world history," and that their preferences will only solidify the popularity of mainstream, popular brands and products. Finally, Elberse and The Wall Street Journal's Lee Gomes also believe that the Internet community unconsciously may have wanted to back the theory because it flattered its citizenry. Long tail strength would fortify the value of new digital assets created outside the walls of institutional, cultural power. And bloggers are cool, say the Long Tail worshippers, because the long tail promises an audience for just about any goofy comment out there.

This is all probably true, but it's a little too much of a bullshit for me to buy.

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Read more of the same by William Ng in this month's SME Magazine!